The USDA's latest report on soybean oil imports into India paints a picture of an increase in import volumes despite the rise in import duties and global price hikes.

The forecast for India's soybean oil imports for the 2024-25 marketing season (November 2024 - October 2025) is 36 lakh tonnes, up from 32 lakh tonnes in the previous season.

This increase is significant, especially as India's domestic soybean production is expected to rise by 3-5 lakh tonnes over the previous year, bringing the domestic output to approximately 19.8 lakh tonnes.

The total soybean oil availability for India in the 2024-25 season is projected to reach 61.2 lakh tonnes, considering both domestic production and imports.

This is a substantial figure, and it is expected that 57.8 lakh tonnes of this will be consumed domestically, with only 20,000 tonnes being exported. As a result, India could have a surplus stock of 2.8 lakh tonnes by the end of the 2024-25 marketing season.

The USDA's report also compares this projection with the previous marketing season (2023-24), where India had an opening stock of 6 lakh tonnes, domestic production of 20.3 lakh tonnes, and imports of 32 lakh tonnes.

After domestic consumption of 52.8 lakh tonnes and exports of 20,000 tonnes, India was left with a closing stock of 5.4 lakh tonnes.

Additionally, the government anticipates that India's soybean production will rise by around 3 lakh tonnes to 133.26 lakh tonnes for the current year, which could increase the availability of soybeans for crushing into oil.

This increase in domestic production might help reduce the reliance on imports in the long run but, for now, India's soybean oil import demand is projected to remain high.