Surge in Pacific Ocean Temperatures Boosts El Niño's Strength

Melbourne. The intensity and strength of the El Niño weather cycle are rising rapidly, mirroring the swift increase in sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Its strength has now reached near-record levels. On the Niño 3.4 index, the temperature rose to 2.7 degrees Celsius by September 27—the second-highest level ever recorded.

Various weather models indicate that temperatures could rise further in the coming period, potentially pushing the El Niño phenomenon to its peak. Some experts believe the temperature could exceed 3 degrees Celsius during October and November, raising the possibility of a "Super El Niño" event.

Interestingly, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to develop during this same period, which could dampen the intensity of El Niño's impact in certain regions. El Niño is expected to remain a significant factor for several regions over the coming months, likely altering weather and rainfall patterns. Consequently, there are concerns about adverse effects on agriculture, horticulture, and plantation crop yields, particularly in South and Southeast Asia.

It is worth noting that El Niño formation begins when sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific reach 0.80 degrees Celsius; as temperatures rise, the phenomenon's strength and intensity increase accordingly. Previously, the temperature peaked at 2.76 degrees Celsius on November 22, 2015, while the reading of 2.70 degrees Celsius recorded on September 27 was just slightly below that mark.