Key Highlights from the Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the U.P. Roller Flour Millers Association, Lucknow – 26 September
Experts’ Views Discussed in the Meeting
★ FCI should now include carrying cost along with freight charges in OMSS sales. Uttar Pradesh should be given at least a 20% quota under OMSS. Around 100 members joined the association during the last year.
★ It was stated in the meeting that wheat prices in North and South India are always different, as some states are major producing regions while others are major consuming regions.
★ The concept of “One Country, One Rate” for wheat is not appropriate. No subsidy should be provided under the OMSS scheme.
★ Uttar Pradesh is India’s largest wheat-producing state.
★ The government should focus more on increasing wheat production in Uttar Pradesh.
★ A panelist said that the production estimate for the previous season was initially 110 million tonnes, which was later revised down to 105 million tonnes.
★ Rainfall affected productivity, while wheat production was also around 105 million tonnes last year.
★ Private stocks are weak, while government stocks are higher.
★ Bangladesh is not willing to buy wheat at higher prices.
★ Wheat prices for rail-rake movement from India to Bangladesh are around $300–305 per tonne.
★ Global wheat availability is good, but supplies are facing difficulties in reaching their destinations.
★ If the Black Sea conflict ends, wheat prices in the international market could decline by around $60–65 per tonne.
★ Due to the war, farmers are willing to sell wheat at lower prices and are also dissatisfied with the government.
★ So far, around 250,000 tonnes of wheat have been exported from India. Total exports during the season are expected to be around 600,000–700,000 tonnes.
★ The government is in a comfortable position regarding wheat stocks.
★ The government is unlikely to rush into selling wheat under OMSS. Significant volatility in wheat prices is not expected.
★ Prices are expected to remain around the reserve price. The government is also now providing three months’ worth of accumulated ration under the PDS.
★ Exports could keep market sentiment positive.
★ Before making changes to regulations, the government should inform millers in advance so that they can make necessary changes to their operations in accordance with the new rules.
★ In the previous government procurement, around 70% of URS wheat was procured from Madhya Pradesh and 20–30% from Punjab, while the current situation appears somewhat different. Wheat quality is worse than last year, but not as poor as officially reported.
★ The panelist estimated that wheat production declined by around 3 million tonnes due to rainfall.
★ If the OMSS scheme is not introduced, wheat prices could increase by around ₹100–150 per quintal by December–January. However, expectations of a prolonged price rise remain limited.
