The Potential Threat of El Niño
17-Jan-2026 01:24 PM
Despite the current active La Niña weather cycle, most parts of the country are experiencing a severe shortage of winter rainfall, forcing farmers to irrigate their Rabi crops using artificial means (canals and tube wells).
This is naturally increasing their costs. Now, a weather forecasting center has predicted the possibility of the El Niño weather cycle arriving and becoming active in July 2026, which is being considered a cause for concern.
July is typically the month with the highest rainfall in India, and it is also the peak season for Kharif crop cultivation. The situation remains similar in August.
El Niño weather cycles have historically been associated with reduced rainfall in India. If there is a lack of rain and drought conditions prevail during these two months, it could not only affect the sowing of Kharif crops but also prevent sufficient water from accumulating in dams and reservoirs. This could lead to numerous problems.
High temperatures and intense heat prevail during July and August. This dries out the soil in the fields, causing cracks and hindering the sowing of Kharif crops.
India is already grappling with the effects of climate change and global warming, and if the El Niño weather cycle disrupts the southwest monsoon, it could have a profoundly negative impact on the agricultural sector and the rural economy.
However, there is some relief in that the weather forecasting center has stated that there may be above-average rainfall before the onset of drought conditions in India.
The arrival of El Niño is also estimated to be towards the end of July, and it may take a month or a month and a half to become fully active.
If this happens, rainfall in the country during the southwest monsoon season will not be significantly affected.
Even if there is less rain in September, it will not have a serious impact on the Kharif crops. Only time will tell how accurate the APEC Climate Center's forecast proves to be. However, it is certain that the El Niño weather cycle is not considered beneficial for India.