The sea surface in the Pacific Ocean is cooling down at a slow pace.

26-Jul-2024 02:57 PM

Melbourne. When the sea surface temperature (SST) of the equatorial Pacific Ocean increases too much, then the El Nino weather cycle is formed and when it decreases too much, then the La Nina weather cycle is formed.

For the Indian monsoon, El Nino is considered to be resistant and La Nina is considered to be favorable.

The Australian Meteorological Bureau says that right now is neither the time of El Nino nor La Nina, so the weather cycle remains indifferent or neutral.

The El Nino weather cycle became active in June last year and this year it had some effect till May-June, but now it is ending. 

According to the Australian Meteorological Bureau, the SST of the Pacific Ocean is cooling down but its speed is slow. When the temperature there falls below (-) 0.8 degree Celsius, then the La Nina weather cycle will be formed.

It may take about 2 months for the temperature to reach this low level and hence the La Nina weather cycle will be formed in October itself.

It may take about 2 months for the temperature to reach this low level and hence there is a possibility of formation of La Nina weather cycle in October itself.

Four out of seven weather models are indicating this while the remaining three models are making that El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will remain mostly neutral.

This at least makes it clear that El Nino will not return during the current year while the possibility of formation of La Nina weather cycle is up to 60-65 percent.

There will be no danger to the Indian monsoon due to this. In India, the South-West monsoon is currently active in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh,

Chhattisgarh and Goa. One end of it has become active in Uttar Pradesh and Delhi-NCR. Due to this, heavy rain is occurring in these states.

There are chances of rain in other states of the country in the coming days as well. Due to this, the pace of sowing of Kharif crops is expected to increase but in some areas, sowing is also being hampered due to heavy rain and floods.