Tuvar production continues to decline for the last 5 years, production increased in 2024-25 season
12-Nov-2024 09:20 AM
Tuvar production continues to decline for the last 5 years, production increased in 2024-25 season
The recent trends in Tuvar (pigeon pea) production and market conditions indicate a dynamic situation that could have significant implications for both domestic supply and prices. Here's a summary of the key points based on the information provided:
Tuvar Production Trends:
Decline in Production (2019-2023): Tuvar production has been on a declining trajectory over the past few years, with production decreasing from 43.2 lakh tonnes in Kharif 2020 to 33.1 lakh tonnes in Kharif 2022.
Stabilization and Slight Increase in 2023-24: In Kharif 2023, production increased slightly to 34.2 lakh tonnes, and the first estimate for Kharif 2024 is 35 lakh tonnes—indicating a stabilization in production after years of decline.
Record High in 2014: The highest-ever production was recorded in Kharif 2014 at 48.7 lakh tonnes.
Weather Impact:
The weather has played a crucial role in the recent decline, with the crop being hit by adverse weather conditions for the past 4 years.
However, weather conditions improved in 2024, supporting better yields.
Market and Price Pressure:
Imports: Despite the rebound in domestic production, the Indian market continues to be under pressure due to rising imports.
Expected import of 2.37 lakh tonnes of Tuvar in October 2024, and total imports are projected to reach 8.33 lakh tonnes from April to October 2024, a significant increase from 4.4 lakh tonnes during the same period in the previous year.
Imports from African countries have surged, with 7.11 lakh tonnes of Tuvar imported in the previous financial year and 8.33 lakh tonnes already imported by October 2024.
This increase in imports is exerting pressure on domestic prices despite local shortages.
Exports: Myanmar has been a major supplier to India, with 2.78 lakh tonnes of Tuvar exported to India from January to October 2024. However, the stock of Tuvar in Myanmar is decreasing, which could affect future imports from that region.
Prices:
Domestic prices remain high despite the pressure from imports, with prices for Tuvar lemon in Chennai and Mumbai reaching Rs 9900 per quintal on November 11, 2024, just below the peak price of Rs 10,100 earlier in the month.
Prices are currently above the MSP (Minimum Support Price), indicating strong demand or limited supply in the market.
Future Prospects:
New arrivals from Karnataka have started, and with the arrival of new goods starting from January-February, there is an expectation of higher availability of Tuvar in the market in the coming months.
Arrivals in India are expected to peak after December, ensuring better domestic supply in the near future, which could bring some relief to prices.
Conclusion:
The Tuvar market in India is currently facing a mixed scenario—production is stabilizing after years of decline, and better weather conditions have supported yields in 2024. However, imports are still playing a significant role, particularly from African nations, which is putting pressure on domestic prices. Prices remain above MSP, reflecting the tightness in supply despite the expected increase in local production.
The situation could change in the next few months as the new harvest starts arriving, with the peak in arrivals expected after December. This could provide some relief to prices, but the level of imports and export dynamics from Myanmar will remain key factors to watch.