We may have to wait a long time for La Nina

15-Jul-2024 11:56 AM

Mumbai. All Indian and global weather experts agree that the situation is neutral right now. This means that the El Nino weather cycle has already ended and the formation of the La Nina weather cycle has not started fully yet.

However, some initial indications of the beginning of the process of its formation are definitely being received.

The Australian Meteorological Bureau had said that the target of La Nina could be after August, but the indications of new models seem to indicate that we may have to wait longer for the activation of this weather cycle.

It is worth noting that El Nino is considered to be anti-monsoon and La Nina is considered to be friendly. Last year, due to the effect and outbreak of El Nino, the monsoon in India had weakened and especially the Kharif crops were badly affected due to the lack of rain. Now the danger of El Nino has already ended.

Even the delay in the arrival of La Nina should not have any adverse effect on the Indian monsoon. The Meteorological Department has predicted good rainfall in the entire country during July, August and September.

If the activity of La Nina increases in September or thereafter, the intensity and speed of the north-east monsoon may increase, due to which there will be a good hope of good rainfall in the winter season and relief to the Rabi crops. 

According to weather experts, the sea surface in the central and equatorial Pacific Ocean has started cooling down and the condition of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has become neutral.

It seems that after the end of El Nino, it is now the turn of La Nina, even if it takes more time to develop. Sea surface temperature (SST) determines which weather cycle may become active next.