Wheat Production Likely to Fall Short of Target Due to Adverse Weather

04-May-2026 08:47 PM

Mumbai. A senior official from a leading trading firm states that a situation of uncertainty persists regarding the outlook for domestic wheat production this year. Initially, driven by a 600,000-hectare expansion in the sown area and favorable weather conditions, wheat production was projected to surge to a new record high; however, the equation has shifted due to the storms, rains, and hailstorms experienced during March and April. In light of this, domestic wheat production is now projected to be either roughly on par with the previous season or slightly lower. The quality of the wheat has also been compromised in several regions, with the grains becoming discolored and losing their natural luster.

According to the company's senior official, the onslaught of natural calamities has not yet ceased, and the threat remains. Unseasonal rains and storms continue to damage the crops. Wheat stored in *mandis* (procurement centers) is also at risk of spoilage. The crops in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan remain vulnerable.

In the coming months, the influence of the El Niño weather cycle could lead to a rainfall deficit during the Southwest Monsoon season, potentially causing farmers to face shortages of fertilizers. This is feared to have an adverse impact on *Kharif* crop production. Furthermore, if the effects of El Niño persist beyond September, wheat sowing during the subsequent *Rabi* season could be disrupted.

Currently, the government holds adequate stocks of rice and wheat; therefore, there is no threat to national food security. The government has authorized the export of 5 million tonnes of wheat and 1 million tonnes of wheat products. Wheat arrivals at the *mandis* remain robust, and prices have remained relatively stable, exhibiting only limited fluctuations. Wheat of inferior quality is slated for distribution through the Public Distribution System (PDS), whereas grain of average standard quality can be stored for extended periods. Exporters will also be permitted to export wheat of this standard quality.