Difference in estimated figures of demand and supply of sugar
24-Mar-2025 12:21 PM
Differences in Estimated Figures of Sugar Demand and Supply
New Delhi – India's top three sugar industry organizations—Indian Sugar and Bio Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF), and All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA)—have different estimates for sugar production, consumption, and stock levels in the 2024-25 season.
Comparison of Sugar Estimates (2024-25)
| Category | ISMA Estimate (Lakh Tonnes) | NFCSF Estimate (Lakh Tonnes) | AISTA Estimate (Lakh Tonnes) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Stock | 80 | 80 | 78 |
| Sugar Production | 264 | 259 | 258 |
| Sugar Used in Ethanol | 35 | 40 | 35 |
| Total Sugar Production (Including Ethanol Use) | 299 | 299 | 293 |
| Total Sugar Availability | 379 | 379 | 371 |
| Available Pure Sugar (After Ethanol Use) | 344 | 339 | 336 |
| Domestic Consumption | 280 | 285 | 290 |
| Export Estimate | 10 (6 lakh tonnes contracted) | 10 | 10 |
| Closing Stock (as of 30 Sept 2025) | 54 | 44 | 36 |
Key Observations
Production Discrepancy: ISMA estimates 264 lakh tonnes, while Federation and AISTA predict 259-258 lakh tonnes.
Ethanol Usage Variation: NFCSF assumes a higher diversion (40 lakh tonnes) compared to ISMA and AISTA (35 lakh tonnes).
Domestic Consumption Differences: ISMA forecasts 280 lakh tonnes, Federation 285 lakh tonnes, and AISTA 290 lakh tonnes.
Stock Levels at Season-End: ISMA projects 54 lakh tonnes, while NFCSF estimates 44 lakh tonnes and AISTA predicts just 36 lakh tonnes—indicating a potentially tight sugar supply for the next season.
Conclusion
The significant differences in estimates across industry bodies highlight uncertainties in production, ethanol diversion, and domestic demand. The low closing stock predictions, especially AISTA’s 36 lakh tonnes, suggest tight supply in the next marketing season, impacting prices and policy decisions.