Over the past week, the pulses market has shown a broadly weak trend, with prices of almost all major pulses moving downward. The key reasons include peak arrivals of new crops, improving imports, and comfortable overall availability. However, going forward, weather conditions—especially the impact of EL Niño—could shift market sentiment.

Lentil prices have declined due to peak arrivals of the new crop. Domestic production is estimated to reach around 1.6 MMT this year. Imports improved in March, keeping overall supply comfortable. Government procurement is currently slow but may pick up in the coming weeks. NAFED holds around 0.3 MMT of domestic and imported lentils. Since procurement has started, sales by government agencies have been paused.

Prices of yellow pea have also softened, mainly due to expectations of large import volumes in March. Globally, stocks are sufficient to meet India’s demand, and imports may increase further.

Domestically, arrivals of white pea (yellow pea) are about 60% lower than last year, while green pea arrivals have increased as farmers are shifting towards it. Total pea production in India is estimated at around 0.8 MMT. Arrivals remain steady. Since there is no MSP for peas, government procurement is absent. However, prices are still better than last year due to a 30% import duty.

Desi chana prices have weakened with the arrival of the new crop. Production is strong, and government procurement is helping stabilize the market. Australian farmers are receiving lower prices and are shifting towards selling wheat. With low imports, prices may improve in the future. Government procurement is expected to exceed 0.6 MMT this season. NAFED holds around 0.75 MMT of old crop stock.

Tur prices have dropped sharply. The government has increased procurement duration and targets in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, adding pressure on the market. This year, NAFED procurement may reach around 0.3 MMT, while old stock is करीब 0.7 MMT, taking total government stock close to 1 MMT.

Last year’s production was lower, so if EL Niño intensifies, prices could rise again in the future.

The summer crop is nearing completion, and production is better than last year, although overall output may still decline. Availability in Myanmar and Brazil remains good, keeping supply comfortable.

However, if EL Niño remains active and rainfall is deficient, this could be the second consecutive year of lower production. In such a scenario, prices may rise if weather conditions remain challenging during the upcoming Kharif season.

Currently, the market is under pressure due to strong supply from new crops, imports, and comfortable availability. However, weather developments, particularly EL Niño, could significantly change the market sentiment in the coming months.