Global Rice Production Estimated at 540.1 Million Tonnes

15-May-2026 03:43 PM

New Delhi. A leading rating agency has projected that global rice production during the 2025-26 season is likely to stand at 540.1 million tonnes—marking a marginal decline of 0.1 percent compared to the 2024-25 season. This figure is 2.7 million tonnes lower than the estimate of 542.8 million tonnes projected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The agency believes that production conditions in countries such as India, Vietnam, and Thailand are likely to remain normal; however, yields in certain other nations—including Pakistan, the U.S., and Brazil—are not expected to be encouraging.

According to the rating agency's report, farmers in India are unlikely to face significant difficulties at present, thanks to stable weather conditions and the adequate availability of fertilizers. Fertilizer prices are also being maintained at stable levels. Globally, there are sufficient stocks of rice available. In India, the impact of the El Niño phenomenon may intensify starting in August; however, by that time, the cultivation of the Kharif (monsoon) paddy crop is expected to be largely complete.

A similar situation is anticipated in China and Vietnam. Subsequently, however, the cultivation of the second paddy crop (Rabi/winter season) in India and Thailand—as well as the main crop in Bangladesh and Indonesia—could be adversely affected. Consequently, rice production in several countries may witness a decline.

As per the report, the global carryover stock of rice at the end of the 2025-26 season is expected to reach a record level of 192.3 million tonnes—marking a 0.4 percent increase compared to the 2024-25 season—which will aid in ensuring global food security. Global rice consumption is projected to rise by 2.1 percent, reaching 535.5 million tonnes. The demand for rice is expected to remain robust moving forward.