India's Maize Production Likely to Drop by 32 Percent

Mumbai: A leading industry analyst predicts a sharp decline of up to 32 percent in India's total maize production for the 2026-27 season. The acreage under cultivation during the Kharif season has shrunk by approximately 200,000 hectares, and crops in several states have suffered significant damage due to drought and floods. The intensifying El Niño weather pattern poses a continued threat to maize production in the upcoming Rabi and Zaid seasons as well.

It is noteworthy that while the Union Ministry of Agriculture had projected a domestic maize output of 55 million tonnes (550 lakh tonnes) for the 2025-26 season, the analyst estimates that production will fall to 37.7 million tonnes (377 lakh tonnes) in the 2026-27 season.

According to the analyst, monsoon rainfall in key maize-producing states has been 15 percent below the normal average this year. About 80 percent of India's maize is produced across 128 districts. Of these, 68 districts—which account for nearly 60 percent of total maize production—have received 20 percent less rainfall than the normal average; the majority of these districts are located in Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Telangana.

In Bihar, another major producing state, 14 districts have recorded 13 percent less rainfall. In Bihar, 20 percent of maize production occurs during the Kharif season, while 80 percent takes place during the Rabi season. Crop conditions are also reported to be weak in some other states.