La Nina weather cycle expected to emerge after August

10-Jul-2024 11:53 AM

Sydney. Australia Meteorological Bureau (BOM) has indicated that the export of La Nina weather cycle can be possible only after August.

It is known that La Nina is considered favorable to the South-West monsoon and if its activity increases,

there is a danger of heavy rains and severe floods in the Asian continent and especially in India. El Nino weather cycle has already ended (inactive) and La Nina weather cycle has not yet formed. According to BOM, climate models indicate that the sea surface temperature in the central tropical Pacific Ocean can remain cold for at least the next two months.

From September, four out of seven climate models can indicate that the sea surface temperature can remain at the neutral NSO level.

Apart from this, the remaining three models are telling that the sea surface temperature can reach the La Nina level which is below (-) 0.8 degree Celsius.

According to the Bureau, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (NSO) is currently neutral and the sea surface temperature (SHT) in the central tropical Pacific Ocean has been continuously cooling since December 2023.

It is also getting the support of colder than normal average subsurface in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. In view of this, the possibility of formation of El Nino is not visible at the moment, but the hope of the origin of La Nina weather cycle is increasing. 

This means that there is no danger to the Indian monsoon this year and there may be heavy rains in the country during July-August. If La Nina is formed in September, then it can give some strength to the north-east monsoon in the country.

This monsoon remains active from October to December. This can provide good help in sowing and progress of crops in the upcoming Rabi season. The rainy season is still going on in many states of the country.