Likely Shortfall in Sugarcane Supply to Sugar Mills

Mumbai: The sugarcane crop is being severely affected in key producing states this season due to the impact of the El Niño weather cycle and the uneven, erratic, and weak rainfall associated with the southwest monsoon. Nationally, the area under cultivation has shrunk by approximately 30,000 to 40,000 hectares, while crop health is reported to be poor in many regions.

In the drought-hit areas of Maharashtra, farmers are harvesting standing sugarcane crops to feed their livestock due to an acute shortage of green fodder. Karnataka is also witnessing a severe drought. Meanwhile, there are fears that the sugarcane crop in Uttar Pradesh could suffer damage due to devastating floods.

It is noteworthy that apart from the top three sugarcane-producing states—Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka—crops in parts of Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, and Bihar are also at risk of damage from natural calamities.

This is likely to result in a decline in average sugarcane yield, total production, and the average sugar recovery rate. Sugar mills may face a tough struggle to procure adequate quantities of sugarcane. There is also uncertainty regarding sufficient supplies in the upcoming marketing season, which could further compound challenges for sugar mills.

Sugarcane crushing operations at sugar mills are set to commence after mid-October; simultaneously, jaggery and *khandsari* units are expected to aggressively procure sugarcane from farmers, driven by the prevailing high prices of jaggery.