Fear of Impact on Pulse and Oilseed Production Due to Deficient Monsoon Rains

29-May-2026 06:01 PM

New Delhi. The Meteorological Department has forecast that rainfall across the country during this year's monsoon season (June–September) is likely to be 90 percent of the long-period average. Consequently, it is anticipated that the production of Kharif-season pulses and oilseeds will be adversely affected, and the inflation rate is projected to rise above the 5 percent mark.

This concern specifically pertains to Tur (Pigeon Pea) and Soybean. Furthermore, the shortage of rainfall and prevailing drought-like conditions are also feared to impact the production of crops such as Urad (Black Gram), Moong (Green Gram), Groundnut, and Sunflower.

According to trade analysts, a weak monsoon could hinder the sowing of Kharif crops. This could lead to a decline in yield rates and a reduction in overall output. As a result, the prices of key food commodities—particularly pulses and oilseeds—may witness an upward trend, potentially emerging as a significant driver of food inflation.

In the context of rainfall, its timing and spatial distribution hold greater significance than the total volume of precipitation. If adequate rainfall occurs during the most critical and essential stages of crop growth, the impact on production may not be substantial.

However, a scenario characterized by torrential downpours in some regions juxtaposed with severe drought crises in others could lead to a decline in crop progress, yield rates, and overall agricultural output.