Fears of Disrupted Monsoon and Agricultural Sector Due to El Niño

18-Jun-2026 03:47 PM

New Delhi. The onset of the southwest monsoon has been unusually sluggish this year due to the impact of El Niño, and a rainfall deficit is likely to persist. This raises concerns about severe adverse effects on Kharif crops and industrial activities. While the government holds massive stocks of rice and wheat—and pulse reserves have reached a record high of 4.3 million tonnes—a decline in Kharif crop production is bound to impact the market.

According to the Meteorological Department, rainfall across the country up to June 17 was 40 percent below the normal average. India receives the bulk of its rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (June–September), which acts as a vital tonic—or oxygen—for Kharif crops. The weak start to the monsoon is affecting the cultivation of crops ranging from paddy to soybean.

El Niño will impact not only India but also South Asia, Southeast Asia, and regions like Australia, raising fears of a global food crisis. This could lead to a sharp surge in the prices of essential agricultural and food commodities.

US meteorologists predict that this year's El Niño could be one of the most powerful on record. Climate models indicate a likelihood of severe drought conditions intensifying in parts of India during July and August, particularly in the northwestern and central regions.

Meteorologists suggest that the monsoon's weakness will not be absolute or permanent; intermittent rainfall may occur in various regions, though the duration of dry spells between showers will be critical. Intense heat necessitates regular rainfall, yet the prospects for such precipitation appear bleak this season.