Global Agricultural Markets to be Impacted by Powerful El Niño

18-Jun-2026 07:51 PM

New York: Meteorologists worldwide anticipate a significant intensification in the strength and dynamics of the El Niño weather cycle during the second half of the current year. This could lead to rising temperatures across various regions, disrupt rainfall patterns, and pose risks to agriculture. Signs of its onset have already begun to emerge.

Trade analysts suggest that the El Niño cycle could profoundly affect agricultural production in many countries, including India, potentially triggering severe drought crises in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Conversely, the southern part of South America and the United States could experience torrential rains, raising the risk of devastating floods. Neither of these weather conditions is considered favorable for agricultural crops.

The US Climate Prediction Center announced the arrival of El Niño last week, stating that the cycle is expected to intensify and strengthen, with a 63% probability of evolving into a "Super El Niño." Its impact could persist until 2027.

This situation is viewed as concerning for India, as the Kharif crop season runs from June to September 2026, followed by the sowing of Rabi crops from October 2026 through February 2027—precisely the period when the El Niño cycle is expected to exert its strongest influence.

Farmers in many countries are also grappling with shortages of chemical fertilizers. However, the cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran—marked by the signing of a peace deal and the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening—offers a glimmer of hope. This could bring relief to nations like India, particularly given their extended sowing seasons.

Key commodities likely to see significant fluctuations in global market prices due to El Niño and adverse weather conditions include cocoa, coffee, sugar, and palm oil. The production of certain spices and grains will also be affected, which could lead to a rise in their prices.