India's Sugar Output Expected to Rise by 25% in 2025–26 Season: USDA

08-May-2025 10:07 AM

India's Sugar Output Expected to Rise by 25% in 2025–26 Season: USDA
★ According to the USDA, India’s raw sugar production for the 2025–26 season (starting October) is projected to increase by about 25–26% to reach 35 million tonnes, up from 28 million tonnes in 2024–25. This expected rebound is attributed to a favourable monsoon in 2024 and an expansion in sugarcane cultivation, particularly in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh.
★ The area under sugarcane cultivation is estimated to rise by 9%, reaching 5.85 million hectares. Total sugarcane production is likely to grow by 7%, from 435 million tonnes last year to 465 million tonnes this year.
★ Refined sugar output is expected to reach 33 million tonnes, including 60,000 tonnes of khandsari (traditional raw sugar). The sugar recovery rate is anticipated to improve from 8% to 9.5%, thanks to better water availability.
★ Domestic sugar consumption in 2025–26 is projected to rise to 31 million tonnes, up from 29.5 million tonnes in the previous year, driven by steady growth in the food services sector.
★ Despite the positive outlook for the upcoming season, the current year's lower output and expected drop in year-end stocks remain concerns. Meanwhile, sugar prices in international markets are at multi-year lows, making it difficult for India to meet its 1 million tonne export target.
★ To manage limited supply, the government has also reduced the sales quota between January and May compared to last year. Given these supply constraints, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain firm until the new season begins.