News Capsule: El Niño Concerns Deepen; 2026 Monsoon May Fall Below 90% of Normal: Skymet
23-Jun-2026 10:25 AM
News Capsule: El Niño Concerns Deepen; 2026 Monsoon May Fall Below 90% of Normal: Skymet
★ India’s 2026 southwest monsoon could be significantly weaker than normal due to El Niño, according to Skymet’s G.P. Sharma. Rainfall may fall below 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with current model estimates hovering around 84-85%. While rainfall is expected to improve in July, a prolonged dry spell is likely during mid-August.
★ Experts warned that El Niño could affect both kharif and rabi crops. Wheat and gram-growing regions in northern India are considered more vulnerable, while southern India may see a relatively limited impact. Palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia is also expected to suffer, while lower sugarcane output could result in minimal diversion of sugar toward ethanol production next year.
★ According to experts, food inflation is likely to be felt more strongly in rural areas than in urban centres. However, monsoon conditions in 2027 are expected to be better than in 2026 as El Niño weakens.