Rainfall expected to fall below 90% of long-period average

23-Jun-2026 02:46 PM

Mumbai: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that during the southwest monsoon season (June to September), rainfall at the national level may be around 90% of the long-period average (LPA). However, a private weather agency has suggested that actual rainfall could fall below the 90% mark.

According to the agency, following the El Niño phase, La Niña conditions typically develop in the subsequent year, which are generally considered favorable for the monsoon. As a result, rainfall conditions in 2027 may turn normal or even better.

It further noted that during August 2026, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could turn positive. While rainfall in July is expected to be relatively good compared to June, a dry spell may begin from mid-August onwards. This could pose risks for Kharif crops and also create concerns for the upcoming Rabi season.

Experts also warn that El Niño conditions may impact palm oil production in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. In India, sugar production could decline, raising uncertainties about its use in ethanol production. However, maize usage for ethanol is expected to increase significantly, potentially reaching 170 lakh tonnes.