Sugar availability expected to improve next season

22-Sep-2025 08:48 PM

New Delhi. Increased sugarcane acreage and good crop conditions are expected to boost sugar production in the next marketing season, ensuring smooth supply and availability in the domestic market,

and higher stocks are expected at the end of the marketing season. However, it is difficult to be certain about a softening of prices, as the increase in the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) for sugarcane and other mill expenses will increase sugar input costs, leaving millers unable to reduce their product prices.

Although the apex industry body, the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), has initially estimated gross domestic sugar production to reach 34.9 million tonnes during the 2025-26 marketing season (October-September), some industry analysts expect actual production to be around 36 million tonnes.

If this production estimate is to be believed, after diversion to ethanol production, 31-32 million tons of refined sugar could remain available for food purposes. Total domestic sugar consumption for various purposes is expected to be between 28-29 million tons.

This means that a surplus stock of 2-3 million tons could remain. If exports are not permitted, the industry's sugar holdings could rise to over 6 million tons by the end of the marketing season, September 30, 2026, significantly higher than the estimated stock of 4.5 million tons as of September 30, 2025.