USDA Projects Record Wheat Production of 1150 Lakh Tonnes in India

07-Apr-2025 04:58 PM

New Delhi: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected India's wheat production to reach a record 1150 lakh tonnes in the 2024–25 Rabi season, marking the third consecutive year of record output.

This estimate closely aligns with the Union Agriculture Ministry’s forecast of 1154.30 lakh tonnes, driven by an increase in sowing area and favorable weather.

Despite the bumper crop, the Indian government is unlikely to lift the export ban on wheat and its value-added products, in place since May 2022. However, limited government-to-government exports to neighboring countries may be allowed.

Wheat prices in the domestic market, though high earlier, have begun to ease slightly. On the other hand, no wheat imports were seen in 2024 due to a 40% import duty, which remains in effect, making imports unlikely in 2025 as well.

The wheat sowing area has reached a record 326 lakh hectares, according to USDA data. Supporting this, the Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research anticipates actual production may exceed 1150 lakh tonnes, surpassing last year’s estimate of 1132.90 lakh tonnes.

Industry estimates suggest production will rise from 1060 lakh tonnes last year to around 1100 lakh tonnes this year, improving domestic supply.