The sentiment in India’s wheat market, which had remained under pressure for a long time, is now gradually turning positive. Earlier, factors such as a record crop, expectations of high arrivals, favourable weather, and comfortable stocks in the central pool were keeping the market in a bearish phase. However, recent developments have started to change the direction of the market.

Recent rains and strong storms across several parts of North India have impacted the wheat crop. The quality of the produce has been affected, with grains turning discoloured and black in many areas. As a result, arrivals in mandis have started to decline, while moisture content has increased, altering the supply dynamics in the market.

To support farmers, some states have relaxed procurement norms. States like Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan have implemented lenient quality standards so that weather-affected crops can still be procured, ensuring better price realization for farmers. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, wheat procurement is being carried out with a bonus, encouraging farmers to sell more to government agencies.

Meanwhile, the situation in Uttar Pradesh—the largest wheat-producing state—is slightly different. Traditionally, farmers in UP prefer selling in the open market rather than to government agencies. However, in northern parts of the state, rainfall has affected crop quality, which may reduce the availability of good-quality wheat in the open market.

In Madhya Pradesh, where wheat quality is relatively better and bonus procurement is ongoing, a significant portion of good-quality wheat is being absorbed by government procurement. This implies that less high-lustre wheat will be available in the open market. Consequently, the price gap between good-quality and lower-quality wheat is expected to widen.

Given these developments, there are indications that in the long term, prices of good-quality wheat may increase by ₹100–150 per quintal. However, in the short term, prices may remain under pressure due to ongoing harvesting across the country and the likelihood of higher arrivals in the coming weeks.

Overall, market sentiment is gradually turning positive, and a clearer trend of quality-based pricing is likely to emerge in the near future.